The effect of HIV programmes in South Africa on national HIV incidence trends, 2000-2019

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Results
The model estimated incidence in 15-49 year olds of 0.84% (95% CI:
0.75-0.96%) at the start of 2019. This represents a 62% reduction (95%
CI: 55-66%) relative to 2000, a 47% reduction (95% CI: 42-51%) relative
to 2010, and a 73% reduction (95% CI: 68-77%) relative to the incidence
that would have been expected in 2019 in the absence of any
interventions. The reduction in incidence in 2019 due to interventions
was greatest for ART and condom promotion, with VMMC and behaviour
change after HIV testing having relatively modest impacts. ...
Conclusions
HIV incidence in South Africa has declined substantially since 2000, with ART and condom
promotion contributing most significantly to this decline.

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https://europepmc.org/article/med/35125471